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Will the debt ceiling breakthrough boost the dollar?

Economic outlook

29 May 2023

John Noonan of Thomson Reuters provides his perspective on the potential debt ceiling negotiations' breakthrough. He says both sides of the aisle are confident that a deal will happen to prevent a potential crisis, but the market has not priced in the debt ceiling and US default this time around. John says the focus is now shifting towards central bank expectation and recent data suggests that inflation will be sticky and hang around leading to higher yields. He predicts that the dollar will strengthen, yields will remain high, and the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in fighting inflation rather than a potential recession. The upcoming job numbers from the US will be significant, and if they're strong, John says the Federal Reserve's contention that recession risk is remote will likely hold favor with the market.

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