Adrian Atkins from Morningstar joins us to assess the contentious takeover of Origin (ORG), indicating it may falter given the opposition by significant shareholders. Lack of support from major stakeholders like AustralianSuper and Perpetual (PPT) could surpass 20% of votes, dwindling its likelihood of success, requiring 75% approval. Adrian sheds light on the potential outcomes if the deal doesn't transpire.

Adrian affirms that Origin is equipped to handle its affairs independently if Brookfield (NYSE: BN) retracts. On the other hand, if the takeover is unsuccessful, Brookfield and its alliance may opt for an off-market takeover offer, acquiring a majority, giving them control while Origin remains listed on ASX. However, this may lead to policy changes, potentially reducing dividends to amplify renewable investment.

He also addresses the concern of major super funds regarding valuation and private market uptake of infrastructure assets. Adrian points out that valuation for utilities like Origin, AGL, and APA seems fair or undervalued with favourable long-term prospects from investment in renewables. He also recognises the potential attractiveness of AGL and APA for acquirers given their investment in the renewable transition and share price dips respectively.

Find the full unedited transcript of this interview below:

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